At the half-way point of yet another disappointing season, let's take a look at where we're at.
Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.
Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.
Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.
Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.
NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's
Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's
Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's
Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:
NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA
Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67
Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46
Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.
As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.
Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.
Showing posts with label John Grabow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Grabow. Show all posts
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Monday, June 16, 2008
Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Series Review)
Record after Series: Pit (34-36) Bal (34-34)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Thursday, May 22, 2008
More Loose Change
Pitcher's turn. Again, here's how the Pirate pitching stats would look if multiplied by four, representing the end of the year's stats.
Snell 8 W, 12 L, 4.84 ERA, 96 BB, 152 K in 231 IP
Duke 8 W, 8 L, 4.23 ERA, 76 BB, 80 K in 221 IP
Maholm 8 W, 20 L, 5.03 ERA, 80 BB, 152 K in 215 IP
Gorzelanny 12 W, 16 L, 6.64 ERA, 124 BB, 96 K in 163 IP
Dumatrait 4 W, 8 L, 4.39 ERA, 100 BB, 112 K in 164 IP
Capps 40 S, 2.61 ERA, 12 BB, 48 K, in 83 IP
Grabow 12 W, 4 L, 1.33 ERA, 16 BB, 80 K, in 82 IP
Marte 12 W, 0 L, 4.15 ERA, 20 BB, 96 K, in 87 IP
Osoria 8 W, 4 L, 4.88 ERA, 24 BB, 44 K, in 125 IP
Yates 8 W, 0 L, 3.05 ERA, 68 BB, 44 K, in 83 IP
As with the offensive projections, these need to be taken with a block of salt. These aren't good for a whole lot, besides illustrating how awful the starting rotation has been to this point. As further proof, take a second look at those relief win-loss totals. These will obviously not end up near what they look now. Here are the average projections. Again, these are produced using three fourths of the player's career averages, then adding that number to the results thus far.
Snell 10 W, 11 L, 4.53 ERA, 83 BB, 164 K in 207 IP
Duke 10 W, 11 L, 4.21 ERA, 64 BB, 98 K in 209 IP
Maholm 10 W, 16 L, 4.73 ERA, 77 BB, 136 K in 208 IP
Gorzelanny 12 W, 13 L, 4.84 ERA, 95 BB, 121 K in 190 IP
Dumatrait 2 W, 12 L, 6.67 ERA, 87 BB, 87 K, in 141 IP
Capps 18 S, 2.83 ERA, 11 BB, 49 K, in 71 IP
Grabow 5 W, 3 L, 3.41 ERA, 22 BB, 62 K, in 65 IP
Marte 5 W, 2 L, 3.49 ERA, 27 BB, 74 K, in 68 IP
Osoria 2 W, 5 L, 4.88 ERA, 25 BB, 43 K, in 98 IP
Yates 4 W, 3 L, 4.32 ERA, 46 BB, 56 K, in 72 IP
Similarly to the hitters, these projections can give us a pretty good idea of where the Bucs are heading (barring injuries to any of these players of course). One other interesting bit of information revealed here is that the combined record of these pitchers would be 60-75. Fifteen games below .500 is about where this team was expected to be by most experts.
If these projections are anywhere close to being a reality, and they should be, the Pirates will not be a buyer at the trading deadline. Based on John Grabow's career year up to this point, both he and Damaso Marte should be traded. This would hold especially true should Sean Burnett show he belongs in the Major Leagues. Should this happen, expect the Pirates to get some sort of a left handed reliever in return since they have nobody left in AAA, and none of the guys in AA seem relatively close to ready either.
On the plus side, it certainly seems as though the starting rotation is destined to put up some major innings soon.
Snell 8 W, 12 L, 4.84 ERA, 96 BB, 152 K in 231 IP
Duke 8 W, 8 L, 4.23 ERA, 76 BB, 80 K in 221 IP
Maholm 8 W, 20 L, 5.03 ERA, 80 BB, 152 K in 215 IP
Gorzelanny 12 W, 16 L, 6.64 ERA, 124 BB, 96 K in 163 IP
Dumatrait 4 W, 8 L, 4.39 ERA, 100 BB, 112 K in 164 IP
Capps 40 S, 2.61 ERA, 12 BB, 48 K, in 83 IP
Grabow 12 W, 4 L, 1.33 ERA, 16 BB, 80 K, in 82 IP
Marte 12 W, 0 L, 4.15 ERA, 20 BB, 96 K, in 87 IP
Osoria 8 W, 4 L, 4.88 ERA, 24 BB, 44 K, in 125 IP
Yates 8 W, 0 L, 3.05 ERA, 68 BB, 44 K, in 83 IP
As with the offensive projections, these need to be taken with a block of salt. These aren't good for a whole lot, besides illustrating how awful the starting rotation has been to this point. As further proof, take a second look at those relief win-loss totals. These will obviously not end up near what they look now. Here are the average projections. Again, these are produced using three fourths of the player's career averages, then adding that number to the results thus far.
Snell 10 W, 11 L, 4.53 ERA, 83 BB, 164 K in 207 IP
Duke 10 W, 11 L, 4.21 ERA, 64 BB, 98 K in 209 IP
Maholm 10 W, 16 L, 4.73 ERA, 77 BB, 136 K in 208 IP
Gorzelanny 12 W, 13 L, 4.84 ERA, 95 BB, 121 K in 190 IP
Dumatrait 2 W, 12 L, 6.67 ERA, 87 BB, 87 K, in 141 IP
Capps 18 S, 2.83 ERA, 11 BB, 49 K, in 71 IP
Grabow 5 W, 3 L, 3.41 ERA, 22 BB, 62 K, in 65 IP
Marte 5 W, 2 L, 3.49 ERA, 27 BB, 74 K, in 68 IP
Osoria 2 W, 5 L, 4.88 ERA, 25 BB, 43 K, in 98 IP
Yates 4 W, 3 L, 4.32 ERA, 46 BB, 56 K, in 72 IP
Similarly to the hitters, these projections can give us a pretty good idea of where the Bucs are heading (barring injuries to any of these players of course). One other interesting bit of information revealed here is that the combined record of these pitchers would be 60-75. Fifteen games below .500 is about where this team was expected to be by most experts.
If these projections are anywhere close to being a reality, and they should be, the Pirates will not be a buyer at the trading deadline. Based on John Grabow's career year up to this point, both he and Damaso Marte should be traded. This would hold especially true should Sean Burnett show he belongs in the Major Leagues. Should this happen, expect the Pirates to get some sort of a left handed reliever in return since they have nobody left in AAA, and none of the guys in AA seem relatively close to ready either.
On the plus side, it certainly seems as though the starting rotation is destined to put up some major innings soon.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
1-0 So Far (Part 2)
Part two of the comparison will focus on the relievers. There are not many big names in the bullpens of the NL Central. Unless you count Kerry Wood and his 2003 season, that is. Let's see if we can make some sense of this.
Name............IP......W.......L.......H.......BB......K.......ERA
J. Grabow.......18......2.......1.......15......4.......16......1.50
D. Marte........20......2.......0.......16......5.......24......4.58
T. Yates........18......2.......0.......13......16......8.......3.00
F. Osoria.......27......2.......1.......41......6.......9.......5.60
M. Capps........18......0.......0.......14......3.......10......2.55
R. Franklin.....20......1.......1.......17......8.......9.......1.80
J. Isringhausen.17......1.......4.......20......8.......12......7.02
K. McClellan....19......0.......1.......18......5.......16......2.79
R. Flores.......10......1.......0........8......7.......9.......1.86
R. Villone......15......1.......1.......11......10......14......3.52
C. Marmol.......24......1.......0.......10......6.......32......1.13
M. Wuertz.......20......0.......0.......16......6.......11......3.60
B. Howry........19......0.......2.......28......2.......13......5.79
K. Wood.........19......2.......1.......11......3.......17......3.79
S. Marshall......9......0.......0.......8.......7.......5.......4.15
Several points to make. First, I have no doubt that Piniella will destroy Marmol's arm, if not by the end of this year, then definitely by the middle of next season. Kind of reminds me of the situation the Tigers were in a couple years ago with Zumaya. It's almost as if the temptation is too great for the manager. You've got a guy that throws way too hard to give anybody at the plate a chance, so you bring him in during every close game and sooner or later, he blows out his arm. As much as I hate the Cubs, Marmol is fun to watch, and I really don't want to see that happen to him. Here's to hoping Lou gets smart.
Second, notice the Pirate relievers' record. 8-2. Not bad. This obviously demonstrates the fact that Bucs have come back to win several games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The IP's are a bit inflated due to all of those early season extra innings games. It's a shame the rotation didn't hold up its end in the beginning of the year, we could be in 2nd or 3rd place right now, well above .500.
Thirdly, the comparison of innings pitched leads me to believe the Pirates may just have the best rotation of all three of these teams. Before you laugh, hear me out. I honestly doubt the Cardinals can stay afloat with the talent and track records of the players they're going to have to count on to get to the trading deadline in a position of "buyer". The Cubs seem injury-prone, though they may get lucky, and they surely have the offense to get to the playoffs. As I already mentioned, the Pirate relievers have more innings pitched because of the crazy extra inning contests. Also, the inevitable Matt Morris effort added what amounts to be an extra 3 innings per every 5th day. Luckily, that's now out of the equation. Couple that with the addition of an effective (for a 5th starter) Phil Dumatrait and the hopeful rediscovery of form for Gorzo and Snell, and you have a solid staff, without the flash of a Zambrano or Wainright.
Contrary to my belief before the season started, I now wonder aloud that the Pirates may actually end up with an above average bullpen this year. How, I don't know. The stats don't lie, and compared to their counterparts, are actually quite favorable early in the year. And we finally have a manage that seems to know how to use John Grabow. Either that or he learned to pitch. I guess time will tell...
Name............IP......W.......L.......H.......BB......K.......ERA
J. Grabow.......18......2.......1.......15......4.......16......1.50
D. Marte........20......2.......0.......16......5.......24......4.58
T. Yates........18......2.......0.......13......16......8.......3.00
F. Osoria.......27......2.......1.......41......6.......9.......5.60
M. Capps........18......0.......0.......14......3.......10......2.55
R. Franklin.....20......1.......1.......17......8.......9.......1.80
J. Isringhausen.17......1.......4.......20......8.......12......7.02
K. McClellan....19......0.......1.......18......5.......16......2.79
R. Flores.......10......1.......0........8......7.......9.......1.86
R. Villone......15......1.......1.......11......10......14......3.52
C. Marmol.......24......1.......0.......10......6.......32......1.13
M. Wuertz.......20......0.......0.......16......6.......11......3.60
B. Howry........19......0.......2.......28......2.......13......5.79
K. Wood.........19......2.......1.......11......3.......17......3.79
S. Marshall......9......0.......0.......8.......7.......5.......4.15
Several points to make. First, I have no doubt that Piniella will destroy Marmol's arm, if not by the end of this year, then definitely by the middle of next season. Kind of reminds me of the situation the Tigers were in a couple years ago with Zumaya. It's almost as if the temptation is too great for the manager. You've got a guy that throws way too hard to give anybody at the plate a chance, so you bring him in during every close game and sooner or later, he blows out his arm. As much as I hate the Cubs, Marmol is fun to watch, and I really don't want to see that happen to him. Here's to hoping Lou gets smart.
Second, notice the Pirate relievers' record. 8-2. Not bad. This obviously demonstrates the fact that Bucs have come back to win several games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The IP's are a bit inflated due to all of those early season extra innings games. It's a shame the rotation didn't hold up its end in the beginning of the year, we could be in 2nd or 3rd place right now, well above .500.
Thirdly, the comparison of innings pitched leads me to believe the Pirates may just have the best rotation of all three of these teams. Before you laugh, hear me out. I honestly doubt the Cardinals can stay afloat with the talent and track records of the players they're going to have to count on to get to the trading deadline in a position of "buyer". The Cubs seem injury-prone, though they may get lucky, and they surely have the offense to get to the playoffs. As I already mentioned, the Pirate relievers have more innings pitched because of the crazy extra inning contests. Also, the inevitable Matt Morris effort added what amounts to be an extra 3 innings per every 5th day. Luckily, that's now out of the equation. Couple that with the addition of an effective (for a 5th starter) Phil Dumatrait and the hopeful rediscovery of form for Gorzo and Snell, and you have a solid staff, without the flash of a Zambrano or Wainright.
Contrary to my belief before the season started, I now wonder aloud that the Pirates may actually end up with an above average bullpen this year. How, I don't know. The stats don't lie, and compared to their counterparts, are actually quite favorable early in the year. And we finally have a manage that seems to know how to use John Grabow. Either that or he learned to pitch. I guess time will tell...
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