At the half-way point of yet another disappointing season, let's take a look at where we're at.
Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.
Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.
Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.
Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.
NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's
Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's
Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's
Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:
NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA
Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67
Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46
Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.
As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.
Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.
Showing posts with label Franquelis Osoria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Franquelis Osoria. Show all posts
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Monday, June 16, 2008
Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Series Review)
Record after Series: Pit (34-36) Bal (34-34)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
"Consistency is the Key"
It was the summer of 1997, I remember it like it was yesterday. I stepped foot onto my first high school football practice. We all gathered into a big circle as Coach Tim Krysiak began his opening season speech about the upcoming year. "Consistency is the key," he said to us. That year we pulled out a strong 0-10 showing. We went on to win 5 games total the following two years before I quit. I'm sure I'm not alone.
Every year, like that 15 yr old kid in us, we line up our vehicles in the parking lot awaiting the first pitch of the new year. Then, like in practice, we tune in our TV's endless nights hoping for change. What exactly are John Russell and the Pirates orginization doing much different from my favorite Coach K?
I value the hard work Sean Burnett has put into this orginization after multiple surgeries. I also have to give a nod to John Van Ben. for his triumphant return, but lets be honest with each other. Are we really excited about the fact that two top draft picks, be it from different years, have made it to the majors once again? Or are we excited about thier level of play since thier return?
Looking into a bullpen once filled with Rule 5 draft pick Evan Meek and this years white flag Franquelis Osoria, it feels like Thomas Ian Nicholas is trotting onto the field when thier numbers are called. I dunno whether to celebrate or cry while my PTSD from the last 15 years succombs my brain. Thier play has been average at best, but like every Pirate pitcher in years past, we'll wait and pray to a God who I swear thinks we don't exist.
Meanwhile, lets focus on the batting order. While I agree with Russell's decision to drop McLouth in the order tonight, he didn't drop him far enough. Now batting for your Pittsburgh Pirates, number 38 Jason Bay. While 6 home runs in the month of April is admirable, we're still left with the fact he's posted 11 RBI's this season and I don't care how many times he walks. If he wants to be a sissy and never swing at the ball unless the bases are empty, then why is he in the 3 hole?
Doumit steps in next. It sucks he can't catch everyday, enough said. Nady's 2 RBI's put him ahead in the NL RBI lead by one. Well done. What a 5 hitter is supposed to do. Adam Laroche...well he hit another dong tonight. Just enough to keep you hoping for the opening year slump to end, but I'm not sold. He's still batting below the Mendoza line while Bautista, after the series of his career, was batting behind the Pirate killer. It makes my head hurt.
Duke's stellar outing proves what we all know through basic baseball knowledge. Keep your team in the game and your offense will try and win one for you. I guess it was Duke's turn to earn his job for another month. I swear they must draw straws in the locker room every week.
I haven't given up yet. But after losing 3 of 4 to our nations capital, if we don't pull out a series and we're already down by one when Barry Zito is scheduled for his return to the rotation tommorrow night I might have to check myself into a psychiatric ward. Worse yet go to the horse track and gamble a lot of money because I suck. I will inevitably lose all the money I take with me and that might numb the pain of being a Pirates Fan.
Every year, like that 15 yr old kid in us, we line up our vehicles in the parking lot awaiting the first pitch of the new year. Then, like in practice, we tune in our TV's endless nights hoping for change. What exactly are John Russell and the Pirates orginization doing much different from my favorite Coach K?
I value the hard work Sean Burnett has put into this orginization after multiple surgeries. I also have to give a nod to John Van Ben. for his triumphant return, but lets be honest with each other. Are we really excited about the fact that two top draft picks, be it from different years, have made it to the majors once again? Or are we excited about thier level of play since thier return?
Looking into a bullpen once filled with Rule 5 draft pick Evan Meek and this years white flag Franquelis Osoria, it feels like Thomas Ian Nicholas is trotting onto the field when thier numbers are called. I dunno whether to celebrate or cry while my PTSD from the last 15 years succombs my brain. Thier play has been average at best, but like every Pirate pitcher in years past, we'll wait and pray to a God who I swear thinks we don't exist.
Meanwhile, lets focus on the batting order. While I agree with Russell's decision to drop McLouth in the order tonight, he didn't drop him far enough. Now batting for your Pittsburgh Pirates, number 38 Jason Bay. While 6 home runs in the month of April is admirable, we're still left with the fact he's posted 11 RBI's this season and I don't care how many times he walks. If he wants to be a sissy and never swing at the ball unless the bases are empty, then why is he in the 3 hole?
Doumit steps in next. It sucks he can't catch everyday, enough said. Nady's 2 RBI's put him ahead in the NL RBI lead by one. Well done. What a 5 hitter is supposed to do. Adam Laroche...well he hit another dong tonight. Just enough to keep you hoping for the opening year slump to end, but I'm not sold. He's still batting below the Mendoza line while Bautista, after the series of his career, was batting behind the Pirate killer. It makes my head hurt.
Duke's stellar outing proves what we all know through basic baseball knowledge. Keep your team in the game and your offense will try and win one for you. I guess it was Duke's turn to earn his job for another month. I swear they must draw straws in the locker room every week.
I haven't given up yet. But after losing 3 of 4 to our nations capital, if we don't pull out a series and we're already down by one when Barry Zito is scheduled for his return to the rotation tommorrow night I might have to check myself into a psychiatric ward. Worse yet go to the horse track and gamble a lot of money because I suck. I will inevitably lose all the money I take with me and that might numb the pain of being a Pirates Fan.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Intro to The White Flag
Well after months of contemplation (and 15+ years of the Pirates losing), we've decided to do it. We've finally had enough of bending over and taking the McClatchy and Nutting soft-serve. The name pretty much sums it up. The White Flag. We've now endured season after season of losing, bad decisions, bad personnel moves, bad...well just plain bad. Bad everything.
So rather than turning a new page, or giving the new management some time to prove themselves, we have decided it is time to "go big or go home". We're gonna let everything hang out and hope that if nothing else, we can spark some more interest in the lovable losing Pirates.
The White Flag has several meanings. In addition to the aforementioned losing streak, we would also like to commend the following pitchers for being the White Flag of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the last 15 years. Here are the nominations:
1993: Mark Petkovsek
1994: Blas Minor
1995: Jim Gott
1996: Steve Parris
1997: Dave Wainhouse
1998: Todd Van Poppel
1999: Jose Silva
2000: Jeff Wallace
2001: Omar Oliveras
2002: Ron Villone
2003: Brian Boehringer
2004: Ryan Vogelsong
2005: Ryan Vogelsong
2006: Victor Santos
2007: Tony Armas Jr.
Each one of these names should bring back a certain ire to any Pirates fan, along with the constant notion of "why?". At any rate, those 15 names represent a whole bunch of worthless as far as I'm concerned, and I'm happy to debate the early stages of 2008's White Flag (think Meek, Osoria, Morris).
So rather than turning a new page, or giving the new management some time to prove themselves, we have decided it is time to "go big or go home". We're gonna let everything hang out and hope that if nothing else, we can spark some more interest in the lovable losing Pirates.
The White Flag has several meanings. In addition to the aforementioned losing streak, we would also like to commend the following pitchers for being the White Flag of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the last 15 years. Here are the nominations:
1993: Mark Petkovsek
1994: Blas Minor
1995: Jim Gott
1996: Steve Parris
1997: Dave Wainhouse
1998: Todd Van Poppel
1999: Jose Silva
2000: Jeff Wallace
2001: Omar Oliveras
2002: Ron Villone
2003: Brian Boehringer
2004: Ryan Vogelsong
2005: Ryan Vogelsong
2006: Victor Santos
2007: Tony Armas Jr.
Each one of these names should bring back a certain ire to any Pirates fan, along with the constant notion of "why?". At any rate, those 15 names represent a whole bunch of worthless as far as I'm concerned, and I'm happy to debate the early stages of 2008's White Flag (think Meek, Osoria, Morris).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
