Through 81 Games

At the half-way point of yet another disappointing season, let's take a look at where we're at.

Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.

Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.

Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.

Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.

NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's

Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's

Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's

Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:

NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA

Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67

Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46

Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.

As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.

Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.

1-0 So Far (Part 2)

Part two of the comparison will focus on the relievers. There are not many big names in the bullpens of the NL Central. Unless you count Kerry Wood and his 2003 season, that is. Let's see if we can make some sense of this.

Name............IP......W.......L.......H.......BB......K.......ERA

J. Grabow.......18......2.......1.......15......4.......16......1.50
D. Marte........20......2.......0.......16......5.......24......4.58
T. Yates........18......2.......0.......13......16......8.......3.00
F. Osoria.......27......2.......1.......41......6.......9.......5.60
M. Capps........18......0.......0.......14......3.......10......2.55

R. Franklin.....20......1.......1.......17......8.......9.......1.80
J. Isringhausen.17......1.......4.......20......8.......12......7.02
K. McClellan....19......0.......1.......18......5.......16......2.79
R. Flores.......10......1.......0........8......7.......9.......1.86
R. Villone......15......1.......1.......11......10......14......3.52

C. Marmol.......24......1.......0.......10......6.......32......1.13
M. Wuertz.......20......0.......0.......16......6.......11......3.60
B. Howry........19......0.......2.......28......2.......13......5.79
K. Wood.........19......2.......1.......11......3.......17......3.79
S. Marshall......9......0.......0.......8.......7.......5.......4.15

Several points to make. First, I have no doubt that Piniella will destroy Marmol's arm, if not by the end of this year, then definitely by the middle of next season. Kind of reminds me of the situation the Tigers were in a couple years ago with Zumaya. It's almost as if the temptation is too great for the manager. You've got a guy that throws way too hard to give anybody at the plate a chance, so you bring him in during every close game and sooner or later, he blows out his arm. As much as I hate the Cubs, Marmol is fun to watch, and I really don't want to see that happen to him. Here's to hoping Lou gets smart.

Second, notice the Pirate relievers' record. 8-2. Not bad. This obviously demonstrates the fact that Bucs have come back to win several games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The IP's are a bit inflated due to all of those early season extra innings games. It's a shame the rotation didn't hold up its end in the beginning of the year, we could be in 2nd or 3rd place right now, well above .500.

Thirdly, the comparison of innings pitched leads me to believe the Pirates may just have the best rotation of all three of these teams. Before you laugh, hear me out. I honestly doubt the Cardinals can stay afloat with the talent and track records of the players they're going to have to count on to get to the trading deadline in a position of "buyer". The Cubs seem injury-prone, though they may get lucky, and they surely have the offense to get to the playoffs. As I already mentioned, the Pirate relievers have more innings pitched because of the crazy extra inning contests. Also, the inevitable Matt Morris effort added what amounts to be an extra 3 innings per every 5th day. Luckily, that's now out of the equation. Couple that with the addition of an effective (for a 5th starter) Phil Dumatrait and the hopeful rediscovery of form for Gorzo and Snell, and you have a solid staff, without the flash of a Zambrano or Wainright.

Contrary to my belief before the season started, I now wonder aloud that the Pirates may actually end up with an above average bullpen this year. How, I don't know. The stats don't lie, and compared to their counterparts, are actually quite favorable early in the year. And we finally have a manage that seems to know how to use John Grabow. Either that or he learned to pitch. I guess time will tell...

The Big 6 (Part 1)

The next 6 games should determine a lot. Not just about the Pirates, but about the National League Central Division. The Cardinals are fighting with the Cubs for 1st place, and though it's only May, there are reasons to believe that this could be the outcome of the Central at the end of the season. On paper, the Cardinals hardly look impressive. On paper, the Cubs look awfully impressive. On paper, the Pirates look, at least up until the last week, like a badly balanced check book. All kinds of zeros in the wrong places, and huge numbers where there should be small ones (like, ERA's for instance).
Let's take a moment to compare the Pirates to the Cardinals and the Cubs.

Name.............IP.....W....L....H....BB....K....ERA

Z. Duke..........49.....2....2....61...18....16....4.04
I. Snell.........48.....2....2....54...21....30....4.53
P. Maholm........41.....2....3....44...15....27....4.79
T. Gorzelanny....35.....3....3....32...29....21....5.97
P. Dumatrait.....30.....1....1....31...15....22....3.86

A. Wainright.....58.....3....2....46...13....39....2.95
T. Wellemeyer....48.....3....1....41...16....42....3.56
B. Looper........47.....5....2....49...11....20....4.21
K. Lohse.........44.....3....2....49...15....18....4.87
J. Pineiro.......33.....2....2....35....9....14....4.05

C. Zambrano......62.....6....1....53...16....43....2.03
R. Dempster......49.....4....1....29...23....36....2.76
T. Lilly.........45.....3....4....42...16....39....5.24
J. Marquis.......34.....1....2....43...15....21....5.08
R. Hill..........20.....1....0....13...18....15....4.12

So what's the huge difference? Walks! Our pitchers either need to miss more bats or quit throwing the ball out of the zone. The Pirates have pitchers that can be successful in this division. This proves it. Especially considering Gorzelanny and Snell have both competed well below expectations. If one of them, most likely Snell, can develop into a legitimate ace, based on the starting pitching we should be able to at least contend for the division title. More to come...

Nate the Great?

After reading today's article in the Post Gazette about Nate McLouth, several things jumped out at me. First off, while Nate is having a heckuva season, I'm still a bit skeptical. I don't think McLouth's a 4th outfielder, but let's face the facts. We're Pirates fans, we've seen this before. Several times. The rise and fall of Adrian Brown, Tike Redman and, more recently Chris Duffy, makes it seem as though this was meant to happen. The only question should be whether we're dreaming and this is really the second half of the season (in which case, like Brown and Redman, we can assume McLouth hits the usual .200 come next spring) or when he will have the unavoidable hamstring-followed-by-a-shoulder injury, which will no doubt reduce McLouth to a machine that takes the first 2 strikes and then whiffs wildly at the third.

By the way, has anybody noticed how many players Dave Littlefield was just plain wrong about? Counting McLouth, I'd say roughly half of our roster contains players in capacities Mr. Littlefield thought were impossible. Of course, a large helping hand was thrust forth by Jim Tracy, too. Let's look at the difference in personnel here:

Ryan Doumit c - Right Field, anyone? First base?! He can't be a Major League catcher! No way!

Freddy Sanchez 2b - Remember when it was Freddy or Bobby Hill for pinch hits? Thank God Wigginton sucked so badly.

Chris Gomez ss - Ok, you're right. This one is typical Littlefield. Though I doubt Littlefield/Tracy would have ever tried anyone else at short in Jack's absence.

McLouth cf - See article above.

Ian Snell sp - I still remember when the light bulb came on. Futures Game, thanks!

Matt Morris released - With Littlefield, he'd still be here to bontribute his share of 30 losses for the year.

Zach Duke sp - Perfect example of Jim Colborn's excellent instincts. Maybe Zach will never be "The Duke", but atleast he has a slider again.

Phil Dumatrait sp - Finally getting a chance, despite not being one of our #1 picks. How did this happen?

Doug Mientkiewicz util - It takes some big ones to tell a 35-year old gold glove 1b he should try some new positions. He'd be platooning at first with Littlefield. On second thought, maybe he should still be.

Ronny Paulino bench - Thanks to Jeff Manto, we still haven't fixed that step-in-the-bucket stance of his. Atleast his confidence is back

John Van Benschoten rp - Relief pitcher? Why? He's a #1 pick! Ahh, I can hear it still.

Sean Burnett rp - See above.

Jack Wilson ss - "Well we had a similar situation a few years ago with Aramis Ramirez, where he was able to avoid the DL, he just kept pinch-hitting for a month or so, he ended up fine. Just ask the Cubs." - Probable Littlefield quote.

Tyler Yates rp - A guy that can throw 98? Why would Littlefield want him?

While this is all speculation of course, the above hints at where the future was heading. I like the new management, believe it or not, and do think we're heading in the right direction. Not in the "you take a right, then a left and it's right there - you can't miss it" sort of way. More of a hopeful kind of way.