It's finally winter, and I finally have some time to update the site. Duckworth and I have been talking about some changes we'd like to make to the site, involving a possible weekly podcast as well as some other ideas being thrown...err kicked (it's football season) around.
Let's go over what has happened since the last post, all the way back in August:
8/3/08 - Freddy Sanchez returns to Pirates - Sanchez returns strong for the last 2 months of the season, the Pirates hope someone will trade fresh meat for him this offseason. The same can also be said for Adam LaRoche and Matt Capps.
8/6/08 - Jeff Karstens nearly no-hits the Diamondbacks - Some thought Karstens was Jesus in a uniform. We thought better. We were right.
8/8/08 - Phil Dumatrait has shoulder surgery - So much for him...maybe.
8/13/08 - Bucs option Jose Bautista to AAA - In a move I didn't like, Bautista was sent down. A platoon with LaRoche probably would've worked out better. In a move I did like, the Pirates would then trade Bautista to Toronto.
8/13/08 - Bucs ink 5th rounder Justin Wilson - Not that he's going to turn out any good (is there any doubt TJ is in his future?), but at least the guy is a proven winner and can gut it out from the left side.
8/14/08 - Bucs sign 6th rounder Robbie Grossman - Never enough talent. Even in the outfield.
8/16/08 - Pedro Alvarez joins the fold - Note the date on this one.
8/22/08 - Pirates option Steve Pearce to AAA - Precarious at best, there was no reason to do this. Then again, there was no reason not to give him playing time with the Pirates either.
8/23/08 - Tom Gorzelanny returns to Pirates - He may be the biggest question mark of 2009. Oliver Perez part 2?!
8/25/08 - Robinzon Diaz is PTBNL - A backup to the backup to the backup (that would be Raul Chavez and Ronny Paulino, and hopefully this year, no backup).
8/28/08 - Pirates, Scott Boras battle over Pedro Alvarez deal - The day of infamy. Probably never before have their been so many scenarios and what-ifs running through Pirate fans' heads.
9/2/08 - Bucs bolster roster with 10 call-ups - Nowhere among them were Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata, but some useful faces emerged, including Ross Ohlendorf and Luis Cruz.
9/20/08 - Jim Negrych, Jeff Sues earn Bucs' minor honors - Talk about unlikely, this probably shows more than anything why the Pirates needed to trade Xavier Nady and Jason Bay.
9/21/08 - Jack Wilson's pinch-hit highlights home finale - Hopefully we'll never be put in the position again where a no-hit, decent-field shortstop avoids the disabled list for a standing ovation at the home finale. Pitiful (no offense, Jack).
9/22/08 - Pedro Alvarez, Pirates agree to deal - At long last.
9/23/08 - MRI reveals knee issue for Pirates' Brandon Moss - This would turn out to be serious, and should have a large bearing on spring training.
9/29/08 - Pirates make immediate changes - Firing pitching coach Jeff Andrews may not have been necessary, but Joe Kerrigan is a step in a better direction. Hopefully the Bucs can rehire Andrews for AAA, he's not the problem.
10/1/08 - Voice of the Pirates turns off his mic - I'm not a huge Lanny Frattare fan, but you have to respect a man that has given 100% through all of this.
11/5/08 - Nate McLouth snares first Gold Glove Award - And most certainly his last.
11/7/08 - Chris Duffy leaves Bucs - This on the other hand, will undoubtedly be his last.
11/21/08 - John Van Benschoten parts ways with Bucs - Amicable? YES! I do, however, think Van Benschoten has a future in the bigs, unlike Bryan Bullington.
11/24/08 - Pirates sign two pitchers from India - Hmm...why the hell not?!
And here we are, ready for the Winter Meetings. Bye, bye Jack!
Showing posts with label Phil Dumatrait. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phil Dumatrait. Show all posts
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Through 81 Games
At the half-way point of yet another disappointing season, let's take a look at where we're at.
Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.
Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.
Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.
Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.
NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's
Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's
Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's
Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:
NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA
Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67
Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46
Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.
As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.
Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.
Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.
Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.
Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.
Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.
NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's
Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's
Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's
Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:
NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA
Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67
Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46
Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.
As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.
Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Series Review)
Record after Series: Pit (34-36) Bal (34-34)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Saturday, May 17, 2008
The Curse is Broken! Bucs Win 7-6.
It would figure that in order to finally win a game against the Cubbies, it wouldn't be an easy contest. As it turned out, we needed Nate the Great to do something - well, great. Most know we here at The White Flag consider Carlos Marmol to have the best stuff of any reliever in our division. He had it today, and so did McLouth. This win could prove to be ginormous. Tomorrow, the Bucs go for their third straight series win. They'll send Phil Dumatrait (1-1 3.96) to the mound against Jason Marquis (1-3 5.26).
Marquis is just the type of pitcher the Pirates seem to have trouble with. He's as mediocre as they come, in the same vein as Brett Tomko and countless others. In fact, looking at his baseball-reference page lists the following players as most similar, among others: Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Armando Reynoso, Kris Benson, Adam Eaton, Jaret Wright, Ted Lilly, Mark Clark, Rodrigo Lopez, Pedro Astacio, Todd Stottlemyre, Jason Schmidt, Vicente Padilla, Jack Wilson (?!), Sterling Hitchcock, and Kip Wells. Now if that's not enough to convince you of the mediocrity, consider the fact that almost half of them have played for the Pirates during the Streak at some point. That should do the trick.
I'm telling you, one of the other Central teams could make a killing by just signing Marquis, Tomko, Matt Belisle, Rich Hill and Doug Davis. We'd never win a game against them. However the Pirates normally do well against ace pitchers. Today was no exception. Good thing we've got Carlos Zambrano's number!
Marquis is just the type of pitcher the Pirates seem to have trouble with. He's as mediocre as they come, in the same vein as Brett Tomko and countless others. In fact, looking at his baseball-reference page lists the following players as most similar, among others: Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche, Armando Reynoso, Kris Benson, Adam Eaton, Jaret Wright, Ted Lilly, Mark Clark, Rodrigo Lopez, Pedro Astacio, Todd Stottlemyre, Jason Schmidt, Vicente Padilla, Jack Wilson (?!), Sterling Hitchcock, and Kip Wells. Now if that's not enough to convince you of the mediocrity, consider the fact that almost half of them have played for the Pirates during the Streak at some point. That should do the trick.
I'm telling you, one of the other Central teams could make a killing by just signing Marquis, Tomko, Matt Belisle, Rich Hill and Doug Davis. We'd never win a game against them. However the Pirates normally do well against ace pitchers. Today was no exception. Good thing we've got Carlos Zambrano's number!
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
1-0 So Far (Part 2)
Part two of the comparison will focus on the relievers. There are not many big names in the bullpens of the NL Central. Unless you count Kerry Wood and his 2003 season, that is. Let's see if we can make some sense of this.
Name............IP......W.......L.......H.......BB......K.......ERA
J. Grabow.......18......2.......1.......15......4.......16......1.50
D. Marte........20......2.......0.......16......5.......24......4.58
T. Yates........18......2.......0.......13......16......8.......3.00
F. Osoria.......27......2.......1.......41......6.......9.......5.60
M. Capps........18......0.......0.......14......3.......10......2.55
R. Franklin.....20......1.......1.......17......8.......9.......1.80
J. Isringhausen.17......1.......4.......20......8.......12......7.02
K. McClellan....19......0.......1.......18......5.......16......2.79
R. Flores.......10......1.......0........8......7.......9.......1.86
R. Villone......15......1.......1.......11......10......14......3.52
C. Marmol.......24......1.......0.......10......6.......32......1.13
M. Wuertz.......20......0.......0.......16......6.......11......3.60
B. Howry........19......0.......2.......28......2.......13......5.79
K. Wood.........19......2.......1.......11......3.......17......3.79
S. Marshall......9......0.......0.......8.......7.......5.......4.15
Several points to make. First, I have no doubt that Piniella will destroy Marmol's arm, if not by the end of this year, then definitely by the middle of next season. Kind of reminds me of the situation the Tigers were in a couple years ago with Zumaya. It's almost as if the temptation is too great for the manager. You've got a guy that throws way too hard to give anybody at the plate a chance, so you bring him in during every close game and sooner or later, he blows out his arm. As much as I hate the Cubs, Marmol is fun to watch, and I really don't want to see that happen to him. Here's to hoping Lou gets smart.
Second, notice the Pirate relievers' record. 8-2. Not bad. This obviously demonstrates the fact that Bucs have come back to win several games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The IP's are a bit inflated due to all of those early season extra innings games. It's a shame the rotation didn't hold up its end in the beginning of the year, we could be in 2nd or 3rd place right now, well above .500.
Thirdly, the comparison of innings pitched leads me to believe the Pirates may just have the best rotation of all three of these teams. Before you laugh, hear me out. I honestly doubt the Cardinals can stay afloat with the talent and track records of the players they're going to have to count on to get to the trading deadline in a position of "buyer". The Cubs seem injury-prone, though they may get lucky, and they surely have the offense to get to the playoffs. As I already mentioned, the Pirate relievers have more innings pitched because of the crazy extra inning contests. Also, the inevitable Matt Morris effort added what amounts to be an extra 3 innings per every 5th day. Luckily, that's now out of the equation. Couple that with the addition of an effective (for a 5th starter) Phil Dumatrait and the hopeful rediscovery of form for Gorzo and Snell, and you have a solid staff, without the flash of a Zambrano or Wainright.
Contrary to my belief before the season started, I now wonder aloud that the Pirates may actually end up with an above average bullpen this year. How, I don't know. The stats don't lie, and compared to their counterparts, are actually quite favorable early in the year. And we finally have a manage that seems to know how to use John Grabow. Either that or he learned to pitch. I guess time will tell...
Name............IP......W.......L.......H.......BB......K.......ERA
J. Grabow.......18......2.......1.......15......4.......16......1.50
D. Marte........20......2.......0.......16......5.......24......4.58
T. Yates........18......2.......0.......13......16......8.......3.00
F. Osoria.......27......2.......1.......41......6.......9.......5.60
M. Capps........18......0.......0.......14......3.......10......2.55
R. Franklin.....20......1.......1.......17......8.......9.......1.80
J. Isringhausen.17......1.......4.......20......8.......12......7.02
K. McClellan....19......0.......1.......18......5.......16......2.79
R. Flores.......10......1.......0........8......7.......9.......1.86
R. Villone......15......1.......1.......11......10......14......3.52
C. Marmol.......24......1.......0.......10......6.......32......1.13
M. Wuertz.......20......0.......0.......16......6.......11......3.60
B. Howry........19......0.......2.......28......2.......13......5.79
K. Wood.........19......2.......1.......11......3.......17......3.79
S. Marshall......9......0.......0.......8.......7.......5.......4.15
Several points to make. First, I have no doubt that Piniella will destroy Marmol's arm, if not by the end of this year, then definitely by the middle of next season. Kind of reminds me of the situation the Tigers were in a couple years ago with Zumaya. It's almost as if the temptation is too great for the manager. You've got a guy that throws way too hard to give anybody at the plate a chance, so you bring him in during every close game and sooner or later, he blows out his arm. As much as I hate the Cubs, Marmol is fun to watch, and I really don't want to see that happen to him. Here's to hoping Lou gets smart.
Second, notice the Pirate relievers' record. 8-2. Not bad. This obviously demonstrates the fact that Bucs have come back to win several games in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. The IP's are a bit inflated due to all of those early season extra innings games. It's a shame the rotation didn't hold up its end in the beginning of the year, we could be in 2nd or 3rd place right now, well above .500.
Thirdly, the comparison of innings pitched leads me to believe the Pirates may just have the best rotation of all three of these teams. Before you laugh, hear me out. I honestly doubt the Cardinals can stay afloat with the talent and track records of the players they're going to have to count on to get to the trading deadline in a position of "buyer". The Cubs seem injury-prone, though they may get lucky, and they surely have the offense to get to the playoffs. As I already mentioned, the Pirate relievers have more innings pitched because of the crazy extra inning contests. Also, the inevitable Matt Morris effort added what amounts to be an extra 3 innings per every 5th day. Luckily, that's now out of the equation. Couple that with the addition of an effective (for a 5th starter) Phil Dumatrait and the hopeful rediscovery of form for Gorzo and Snell, and you have a solid staff, without the flash of a Zambrano or Wainright.
Contrary to my belief before the season started, I now wonder aloud that the Pirates may actually end up with an above average bullpen this year. How, I don't know. The stats don't lie, and compared to their counterparts, are actually quite favorable early in the year. And we finally have a manage that seems to know how to use John Grabow. Either that or he learned to pitch. I guess time will tell...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
5/11 Doubleheader
Today's rainout is being rescheduled as a doubleheader tomorrow. The Bucs will start Phil Dumatrait, the 26 year old waiver claim who has stepped in admirably for the not-so-admirable Matt Morris. Through two starts I think we've seen a good bit of why Dumatrait can be successful. He throws low 90's heat from the left side and can be deceptive. He has also been erratic at times, but seems capable of being the 5th starter.
In the second game the Bucs will give a spot-start to 28 year old former No. 1 pick John Van Benschoten. I remember Van Benschoten as the guy we picked instead of Casey Kotchman, Jeremy Bonderman or David Wright. I suppose it could be worse, the Cubs could have let Mark Prior slip to us.
This actually brings up an interesting point. As busy as Dr. Andrews has been with Pirate pitchers, does Mark Prior have us beat in terms of arm surgeries? I bet it's close.
Getting back to Van Benschoten, I say there's a decent chance he sticks with the team for a while this time. I've always liked the guy, but you can't argue with the track record shoulder surgeries have. Maybe he can be one of the few to overcome one. It's about time someone in this organization came back from arm trouble and does ok. Let's hope Johnny V is it.
Speaking of shoulder issues, not even the spectacular outing Tom Gorzelanny had the other night can change my mind about his shoulder. There's something wrong in there, and his 88 mph heat may have kept the Braves off-balance, but I don't think he's healthy. The back problem also raises my eyebrow. I say it's very possible he caused his back strain by overcompensation. Mechanical problems or not, he's not the same finger-flipping bobblehead we saw last year. Though he does still look an awful lot like Sloth. HEYYY YOUUU GUUUUUYS!!!!
In the second game the Bucs will give a spot-start to 28 year old former No. 1 pick John Van Benschoten. I remember Van Benschoten as the guy we picked instead of Casey Kotchman, Jeremy Bonderman or David Wright. I suppose it could be worse, the Cubs could have let Mark Prior slip to us.
This actually brings up an interesting point. As busy as Dr. Andrews has been with Pirate pitchers, does Mark Prior have us beat in terms of arm surgeries? I bet it's close.
Getting back to Van Benschoten, I say there's a decent chance he sticks with the team for a while this time. I've always liked the guy, but you can't argue with the track record shoulder surgeries have. Maybe he can be one of the few to overcome one. It's about time someone in this organization came back from arm trouble and does ok. Let's hope Johnny V is it.
Speaking of shoulder issues, not even the spectacular outing Tom Gorzelanny had the other night can change my mind about his shoulder. There's something wrong in there, and his 88 mph heat may have kept the Braves off-balance, but I don't think he's healthy. The back problem also raises my eyebrow. I say it's very possible he caused his back strain by overcompensation. Mechanical problems or not, he's not the same finger-flipping bobblehead we saw last year. Though he does still look an awful lot like Sloth. HEYYY YOUUU GUUUUUYS!!!!
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Giants @ Pirates 5/7/08
Going into this game I was concerned about Barry Zito dominating the Bucs and gaining the confidence necessary to fully regain his starting job. Yes, you read that correctly. See, the Pirates can’t hit awful pitching. They can leave perfectly capable pitchers like Brett Myers wondering what went wrong. They even held their own against Johan Santana. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lit up Brandon Webb for 8 runs but they can’t hit awful pitching.
A perfect example can be seen in the Nationals’ series. The starting pitchers the Pirates faced were Odalis Peres, John Lannan and Matt Chico. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. If one were to ask most GM’s which of those three they would take the unanimous answer would be 23-year-old John Lannan. After all, he was entering the game 2-2 with a 2.64 era. Anyway, the Pirates drop 2 of three. Take a wild guess which one of these pitchers the Pirates roughed up for their only win. Now you see why Zito concerns me.
Luckily, the Pirates had Phil Dumatrait. A former 1st round draft pick, Dumatrait was once the focal point in the Red Sox deal for former flash in the pan Scott Williamson. He came to the Pirates after being placed on waivers by the Reds this off-season after getting his first cup of coffee in the bigs which ended up being extremely forgettable. While to this point he has been the best off-season acquisition (time will tell but I believe that Marino Salas will ultimately be the best player the Bucs picked up this off-season), one would hardly confuse him with the dominant pitcher that the Bosox believed they had drafted back in 2000. Fortunately, Dumatrait was facing the pathetic San Francisco Giants.
Dumatrait gave the Bucs nearly 6 inning of shutout ball while striking out five and only walking one. Xavier Nady provided the entire offense with a 2-run homer off of Zito in the 4th and a rare run producing GIDP in the 8th. In reality, those were the only stories of the game. I’m happy to get the win but the only thing to really take away from this game is that while our beloved Buccos may be bad, The San Francisco Giants are much, much worse. Brian Sabean had one decent year as a GM in 1997 when he traded Matt Williams for Jeff Kent and Julian Tavarez. Since then he had just been riding the Bonds express while doing just enough to keep his job thanks to the occasional brain dead GM offering one sided deals that he couldn’t refuse (Hello Littlefield’s Schmidt for Vogelsong and Rios masterpiece) and Bonds turning into a superhuman. I’m reaching out to San Francisco fans here. We know how you feel and maybe we can help each other. Keep the faith and perhaps someday the Bucs will be playing the Giants in the playoffs.
A perfect example can be seen in the Nationals’ series. The starting pitchers the Pirates faced were Odalis Peres, John Lannan and Matt Chico. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. If one were to ask most GM’s which of those three they would take the unanimous answer would be 23-year-old John Lannan. After all, he was entering the game 2-2 with a 2.64 era. Anyway, the Pirates drop 2 of three. Take a wild guess which one of these pitchers the Pirates roughed up for their only win. Now you see why Zito concerns me.
Luckily, the Pirates had Phil Dumatrait. A former 1st round draft pick, Dumatrait was once the focal point in the Red Sox deal for former flash in the pan Scott Williamson. He came to the Pirates after being placed on waivers by the Reds this off-season after getting his first cup of coffee in the bigs which ended up being extremely forgettable. While to this point he has been the best off-season acquisition (time will tell but I believe that Marino Salas will ultimately be the best player the Bucs picked up this off-season), one would hardly confuse him with the dominant pitcher that the Bosox believed they had drafted back in 2000. Fortunately, Dumatrait was facing the pathetic San Francisco Giants.
Dumatrait gave the Bucs nearly 6 inning of shutout ball while striking out five and only walking one. Xavier Nady provided the entire offense with a 2-run homer off of Zito in the 4th and a rare run producing GIDP in the 8th. In reality, those were the only stories of the game. I’m happy to get the win but the only thing to really take away from this game is that while our beloved Buccos may be bad, The San Francisco Giants are much, much worse. Brian Sabean had one decent year as a GM in 1997 when he traded Matt Williams for Jeff Kent and Julian Tavarez. Since then he had just been riding the Bonds express while doing just enough to keep his job thanks to the occasional brain dead GM offering one sided deals that he couldn’t refuse (Hello Littlefield’s Schmidt for Vogelsong and Rios masterpiece) and Bonds turning into a superhuman. I’m reaching out to San Francisco fans here. We know how you feel and maybe we can help each other. Keep the faith and perhaps someday the Bucs will be playing the Giants in the playoffs.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Nate the Great?
After reading today's article in the Post Gazette about Nate McLouth, several things jumped out at me. First off, while Nate is having a heckuva season, I'm still a bit skeptical. I don't think McLouth's a 4th outfielder, but let's face the facts. We're Pirates fans, we've seen this before. Several times. The rise and fall of Adrian Brown, Tike Redman and, more recently Chris Duffy, makes it seem as though this was meant to happen. The only question should be whether we're dreaming and this is really the second half of the season (in which case, like Brown and Redman, we can assume McLouth hits the usual .200 come next spring) or when he will have the unavoidable hamstring-followed-by-a-shoulder injury, which will no doubt reduce McLouth to a machine that takes the first 2 strikes and then whiffs wildly at the third.
By the way, has anybody noticed how many players Dave Littlefield was just plain wrong about? Counting McLouth, I'd say roughly half of our roster contains players in capacities Mr. Littlefield thought were impossible. Of course, a large helping hand was thrust forth by Jim Tracy, too. Let's look at the difference in personnel here:
Ryan Doumit c - Right Field, anyone? First base?! He can't be a Major League catcher! No way!
Freddy Sanchez 2b - Remember when it was Freddy or Bobby Hill for pinch hits? Thank God Wigginton sucked so badly.
Chris Gomez ss - Ok, you're right. This one is typical Littlefield. Though I doubt Littlefield/Tracy would have ever tried anyone else at short in Jack's absence.
McLouth cf - See article above.
Ian Snell sp - I still remember when the light bulb came on. Futures Game, thanks!
Matt Morris released - With Littlefield, he'd still be here to bontribute his share of 30 losses for the year.
Zach Duke sp - Perfect example of Jim Colborn's excellent instincts. Maybe Zach will never be "The Duke", but atleast he has a slider again.
Phil Dumatrait sp - Finally getting a chance, despite not being one of our #1 picks. How did this happen?
Doug Mientkiewicz util - It takes some big ones to tell a 35-year old gold glove 1b he should try some new positions. He'd be platooning at first with Littlefield. On second thought, maybe he should still be.
Ronny Paulino bench - Thanks to Jeff Manto, we still haven't fixed that step-in-the-bucket stance of his. Atleast his confidence is back
John Van Benschoten rp - Relief pitcher? Why? He's a #1 pick! Ahh, I can hear it still.
Sean Burnett rp - See above.
Jack Wilson ss - "Well we had a similar situation a few years ago with Aramis Ramirez, where he was able to avoid the DL, he just kept pinch-hitting for a month or so, he ended up fine. Just ask the Cubs." - Probable Littlefield quote.
Tyler Yates rp - A guy that can throw 98? Why would Littlefield want him?
While this is all speculation of course, the above hints at where the future was heading. I like the new management, believe it or not, and do think we're heading in the right direction. Not in the "you take a right, then a left and it's right there - you can't miss it" sort of way. More of a hopeful kind of way.
By the way, has anybody noticed how many players Dave Littlefield was just plain wrong about? Counting McLouth, I'd say roughly half of our roster contains players in capacities Mr. Littlefield thought were impossible. Of course, a large helping hand was thrust forth by Jim Tracy, too. Let's look at the difference in personnel here:
Ryan Doumit c - Right Field, anyone? First base?! He can't be a Major League catcher! No way!
Freddy Sanchez 2b - Remember when it was Freddy or Bobby Hill for pinch hits? Thank God Wigginton sucked so badly.
Chris Gomez ss - Ok, you're right. This one is typical Littlefield. Though I doubt Littlefield/Tracy would have ever tried anyone else at short in Jack's absence.
McLouth cf - See article above.
Ian Snell sp - I still remember when the light bulb came on. Futures Game, thanks!
Matt Morris released - With Littlefield, he'd still be here to bontribute his share of 30 losses for the year.
Zach Duke sp - Perfect example of Jim Colborn's excellent instincts. Maybe Zach will never be "The Duke", but atleast he has a slider again.
Phil Dumatrait sp - Finally getting a chance, despite not being one of our #1 picks. How did this happen?
Doug Mientkiewicz util - It takes some big ones to tell a 35-year old gold glove 1b he should try some new positions. He'd be platooning at first with Littlefield. On second thought, maybe he should still be.
Ronny Paulino bench - Thanks to Jeff Manto, we still haven't fixed that step-in-the-bucket stance of his. Atleast his confidence is back
John Van Benschoten rp - Relief pitcher? Why? He's a #1 pick! Ahh, I can hear it still.
Sean Burnett rp - See above.
Jack Wilson ss - "Well we had a similar situation a few years ago with Aramis Ramirez, where he was able to avoid the DL, he just kept pinch-hitting for a month or so, he ended up fine. Just ask the Cubs." - Probable Littlefield quote.
Tyler Yates rp - A guy that can throw 98? Why would Littlefield want him?
While this is all speculation of course, the above hints at where the future was heading. I like the new management, believe it or not, and do think we're heading in the right direction. Not in the "you take a right, then a left and it's right there - you can't miss it" sort of way. More of a hopeful kind of way.
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