At the half-way point of yet another disappointing season, let's take a look at where we're at.
Rotation: Right now it's in flux. That doesn't mean it's been all bad. In this case, it means it's been 2/5 bad. But those 2/5 are represented by Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. There's the reason we're 4 games under .500 rather than 4 games over .500. In last year's stats I think it would be reasonable to see an extra 8 wins between the two of them.
Relief: Aside from a few road bumps here and there, the bullpen has held up relatively well. This holds especially true when you consider the state of flux it was in entering spring training. Really, the only relievers the Bucs rely on (Capps, Marte, Grabow, Yates) have done quite well. The long relief has been abysmal, however most of that can be attributed to Franquelis Osoria and his rubber arm.
Bats: Offense has kept the games close, and in most cases has given us plenty of runs to win. I think the Pirates have only been shut out twice, which is acceptable. The addition of Jason Michaels has been huge, as his at-bat to RBI ratio is downright amazing. We are also enjoying above-average production at catcher, short-stop and all three outfield positions. The bench has been good if not great, and we have been able to score runs late in games.
Here are the year-end projections through the half-way point of the season. Again, this is taking into account player's career averages, as well as what they have done up to this point in the season.
NAME AVG-HR-RBI in x AB's
Doumit............306-19-57 in 399 AB's
LaRoche...........243-19-74 in 540 AB's
Sanchez...........265-9-67 in 616 AB's
Bautista..........254-17-66 in 482 AB's
Wilson............288-5-38 in 422 AB's
Bay...............283-32-93 in 576 AB's
McLouth...........271-24-77 in 544 AB's
Nady..............297-20-87 in 514 AB's
Mientkiewicz......268-6-44 in 386 AB's
Gomez.............291-3-40 in 356 AB's
Rivas.............246-8-41 in 370 AB's
Now let's look back to a previous post, where we had projected at the quarter season mark. Ryan Doumit's numbers were projected at .273-18-64 in 463 AB's. The fact that he's been hurt a couple times has obviously helped his average, though we still can expect it to fall a little. I think it's pretty reasonable to expect him to be around 400 at-bats when the season's over. Adam LaRoche was at .253-24-86 in 550 AB's. His average and power numbers have not risen in June as was expected. Sanchez was at .292-6-74 in 613 AB's. He has obviously been a disappointment. Jose Bautista differs only in batting average (.237 - .254) significantly. Jack Wilson had been out because of the injury, and so his numbers have varied more than the rest, though only in batting average. Interestingly enough, Jason Bay, who has long been known to be a streaky hitter, has been so consistent his numbers are virtually identical. Nate McLouth also looks to be right on track, proving his fall was predictable. The same can be said for Xavier Nady. Here's the pitchers:
NAME.........IP...W...L...BB...K...ERA
Duke........200...9...11..56...87...4.08
Snell.......184...8...13..90...148..5.32
Gorzelanny..175..12...12..99...103..5.50
Maholm......200..11...12..65...125..4.49
Dumatrait...151...5...10..82...100..5.67
Capps........74...3....4..11....54..2.75....23 SV
Marte........70...5....1..24....74..3.22
Grabow.......70...6....4..28....57..4.07
Yates........73...5....2..49....54..4.18
Osoria.......97...4....5..24....51..5.72
Burnett......96...4....4..53....54..5.46
Look at those walk totals! No way the Pirates can approach .500 with our strikeout-to-walk ratios. Oh, and pitching Osoria and Burnett in long relief won't help either. Snell and Gorzelanny have seen their ERA's rise almost a full run since the last time they were projected. Neither have had the velocity they had previously, which would lead one to suspect they've been pitching injured. We now know they both were/are. Again, I have faith Phil Dumatrait is not going to implode like the projections insist, however it would be foolish to expect he'll end up with an ERA less than 4.50. Everyone else seems on track.
As always, these are only projections, but I am relatively encouraged by how close the ones from before were. If these players can stay away from injuries, I'd imagine this will be very close. Just in case of injury, I projected a few bench players in order to give us an idea what we'd be looking at. I also did this with Sean Burnett, in case we trade Damaso Marte and/or John Grabow.
Speaking of trades, I believe this illustrates how closely Xavier Nady is actually hitting to what he should be. The sole reason he's "having a career year" as many have proclaimed, is because he's been healthy. In trading him, we as fans, should not expect a huge return. One mid-level prospect should be about fair in all reality.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Monday, June 16, 2008
Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (Series Review)
Record after Series: Pit (34-36) Bal (34-34)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Game 1 (L 9 - 6) Tough one to lose (you'll hear that again). Top of the order killed us in this one, as Freddy Sanchez and Nate McLouth went a combined 0 for 9. With the way Sanchez is playing right now, there's no reason to bat him leadoff, even though I must concede it did work earlier in the season. Doug Mientkiewicz and Jason Michaels, two members of the Pirate's unusually strong bench, came up huge in this one. Michaels delivered a clutch Home Run to keep us in it, though the 2008 White Flag-to-be Franquelis Osoria, would render it useless. Thanks Luke Scott. In other notes, Phil Dumatrait couldn't throw a ball over home plate after the 3rd inning and just about lost the game. Sean Burnett didn't do much better. An assist also goes to the Bucco offense, who went something like 5 innings without a hit after putting Brian Burres on the ropes early on.
Game 2 (L 8 - 7) Tough one to lose (common theme here, eh Lanny Frattare?). Top of the lineup does marginally better for itself in this one, 1 for 8 total, with a Sanchez homer. The Pirates also get long balls from Xavier Nady, Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista. LaRoche and Bautista were the unlikely (unlucky) almost-heroes here. Not much else nice to say about this one, especially from the pitching perspective. The bullpen fails again, though this time it's John Grabow and Matt Capps, both of whom gave up hugely deflating home runs.
Game 3 (W 5 - 4) A feel-good win if there ever was one, lightning actually struck thrice in this one, but Capps, thankfully, was able to wiggle his way out of it. This was a showcase for Jason Bay, as he went 2-3 with 2 walks, a double and a stolen base. Orioles starter Daniel Cabrera, despite his best efforts to injure every Pirate position player in the starting lineup with a fastball to the neck, somehow made it through 6 innings in this one, with Paul Maholm mostly cruising on the other side. Maholm pitched well, the only blemishes being a couple of home runs. The Pirate bullpen held up relatively well in this one, despite Capps' best efforts to screw it up again, and the Bucs were able to putt it out.
Series Record: 8-10-5. The Bucs lose the series, their 10th loss this year.
1 Big Point: Most glaring in this series, I thought, was the Pirate pitchers being unable to throw strikes. Not just in clutch situations, not when they were ahead of the count, just anytime. The walks are killing this team, and it's plausible that the Pirates would be above-.500 with better control. Several of this team's pitchers have lackluster control, and when you compound that with a low strikeout rate, the recipe for losing baseball games is nearly complete, without even figuring in the offense.
Next Up: at Chicago White Sox (38-31)
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Game Review 6/9 W 5-3
Well I got my wish. I wanted a split, and the Bucs did it the hard way. They even showed a little bit of bite to them on the way. The Bucs move out of last place, if only momentarily, with the win. Two games below .500 with a sub-par Washington Nationals team up next.
This game seemed marred with controversy. Most folks are talking about the Randy Johnson, Doug Mientkiewicz scuffe, but I'd also point to the missed call on Mark Reynolds' double. As I mentioned yesterday, I was afraid he was starting to heat up. That's now confirmed. What I don't understand is why ballparks, PNC included, are allowed to have walls that are not clearly marked with the bright yellow line.
I realize I'm arguing for the enemy in this case, but I'm sure the day is not too far off when the Pirates are bitten by the beast as well. I also realize that a fan reached over the wall to catch the ball, but I still think the "highlite stripe" would be a good idea on the top of the fence there at the Clemente wall.
It was refreshing, for once, to see the other team make more mistakes than our team. Especially against the better teams in the league, it's been the Pirates that have choked in the field this year. With their 4 errors on Monday, the DiamondBacks sure shot themselves in the foot, and lost a winnable game. All that said, it felt good to get away with one.
Hopefully yesterday's game brought about some growing up from our young Bucs, and I think games like this often do. Much has been said about the talking that went on, so I won't go into it much further, but I do think that Mr. Johnson should be more careful with his words. Saying that someone "would be on a stretcher" if he cared, is not very nice. Not professional of him either. Maybe he has some growing up to do too.
This game seemed marred with controversy. Most folks are talking about the Randy Johnson, Doug Mientkiewicz scuffe, but I'd also point to the missed call on Mark Reynolds' double. As I mentioned yesterday, I was afraid he was starting to heat up. That's now confirmed. What I don't understand is why ballparks, PNC included, are allowed to have walls that are not clearly marked with the bright yellow line.
I realize I'm arguing for the enemy in this case, but I'm sure the day is not too far off when the Pirates are bitten by the beast as well. I also realize that a fan reached over the wall to catch the ball, but I still think the "highlite stripe" would be a good idea on the top of the fence there at the Clemente wall.
It was refreshing, for once, to see the other team make more mistakes than our team. Especially against the better teams in the league, it's been the Pirates that have choked in the field this year. With their 4 errors on Monday, the DiamondBacks sure shot themselves in the foot, and lost a winnable game. All that said, it felt good to get away with one.
Hopefully yesterday's game brought about some growing up from our young Bucs, and I think games like this often do. Much has been said about the talking that went on, so I won't go into it much further, but I do think that Mr. Johnson should be more careful with his words. Saying that someone "would be on a stretcher" if he cared, is not very nice. Not professional of him either. Maybe he has some growing up to do too.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Game Review 6/8 W 6-4
The Pirates take their first game of the four game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'll be honest, I'd be real happy with a split of this series. The Pirates have to be going through a four game stretch against opposing starting pitchers like they haven't gone through this year. Possibly like they won't go through again this year either. Just look at the stats for Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Doug Davis and Randy Johnson.
Mark Reynolds has to drive the D'Backs fans crazy. The guy is more streaky than a pet-store window. Hopefully they get out of town while he's just getting hot. I'm not sure what the big fuss about Chris Young is. He hits some home runs and is young, but he looks to have a lot of holes in his swing. For the first time in a long time, I can say I like our outfield better than theirs.
I also think they've rushed Max Scherzer. The guy's gonne be crazy good, but this isn't the year. Especially not with their starting rotation. They probably won't need a long man very often, so you have to wonder if he wouldn't be better off getting a regular turn in AAA. Seems to me he's got some control issues to work out.
Every time I think about the Pirates lineup I get excited for Andrew McCutchen. Come to think about it, there's not much that doesn't make me excited about Cutch. Assuming he can hold down hitting leadoff, we can move Freddy Sanchez to the second spot, and Jack Wilson will FINALLY have no reason to show his face batting second. In all honesty, I think that gives us a huge advantage over what we have now. Even putting McLouth second in the order would be a huge step up from Sanchez/Wilson, McLouth/Sanchez or McLouth/Wilson.
I also wonder what management is going to do with Adam LaRoche. I was much in favor of trading for him from the Braves, even at the expense of a guy like Mike Gonzalez, however I can now understand why Atlanta made this trade. I would be curious to find out if LaRoche had this same early season slump problem in the minor leagues. I'd imagine LaRoche's trade value has dropped significantly in his time with the Pirates, since this is now turning into an annual problem.
While I may be getting ahead of myself here, the Pirates seem to be falling in love with veterans again. Doug Mientiewicz is a fine first baseman, but offensively he lacks quite a bit of what Jose Bautista has. It now seems as though the Bucs learned their lesson, and can stick with Jose Bautista for a while. I predict a similar outcome with Ronny Paulino. Raul Chavez is nothing more than a AAAA player. I mean, the guy hit .221 last year in AAA and .255 the year before in AA. And now, all of the sudden, because he has a decent arm and "handles pitchers extraordinarily well" he is better than Ronny Paulino? Has Paulino played poorly enough to get sent to the minor leagues?
Most fans (and apparently management too) say yes. I disagree. If you look at Paulino's stats from the last week he was with the club, here's what he hit: .357 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in 14 AB's. So what happened? Paulino promptly went down and has hit .700 in 10 AB's with 2 doubles and 2 HR's since his demotion. I'm not suggesting he would have done this in the majors, but it sure would be nice to have that bat on the bench right about now. Especially since Chavez really hasn't been all that great defensively, consider in roughly 10 games he's had 2 passed balls, 2 wild pitches and an error. Paulino's stats are these: 30 games, 1 passed ball, 8 wild pitches and an error. The only place Chavez looks better is on wild pitches, which are on the pitcher, and not the catcher! It's also been proven that CERA (catcher's ERA) is not indicative of anything, so there goes that idea. Paulino may be lazy, he may not be playing to his capability, and he may not be a good catcher. But he is a better option than Raul Chavez.
Mark Reynolds has to drive the D'Backs fans crazy. The guy is more streaky than a pet-store window. Hopefully they get out of town while he's just getting hot. I'm not sure what the big fuss about Chris Young is. He hits some home runs and is young, but he looks to have a lot of holes in his swing. For the first time in a long time, I can say I like our outfield better than theirs.
I also think they've rushed Max Scherzer. The guy's gonne be crazy good, but this isn't the year. Especially not with their starting rotation. They probably won't need a long man very often, so you have to wonder if he wouldn't be better off getting a regular turn in AAA. Seems to me he's got some control issues to work out.
Every time I think about the Pirates lineup I get excited for Andrew McCutchen. Come to think about it, there's not much that doesn't make me excited about Cutch. Assuming he can hold down hitting leadoff, we can move Freddy Sanchez to the second spot, and Jack Wilson will FINALLY have no reason to show his face batting second. In all honesty, I think that gives us a huge advantage over what we have now. Even putting McLouth second in the order would be a huge step up from Sanchez/Wilson, McLouth/Sanchez or McLouth/Wilson.
I also wonder what management is going to do with Adam LaRoche. I was much in favor of trading for him from the Braves, even at the expense of a guy like Mike Gonzalez, however I can now understand why Atlanta made this trade. I would be curious to find out if LaRoche had this same early season slump problem in the minor leagues. I'd imagine LaRoche's trade value has dropped significantly in his time with the Pirates, since this is now turning into an annual problem.
While I may be getting ahead of myself here, the Pirates seem to be falling in love with veterans again. Doug Mientiewicz is a fine first baseman, but offensively he lacks quite a bit of what Jose Bautista has. It now seems as though the Bucs learned their lesson, and can stick with Jose Bautista for a while. I predict a similar outcome with Ronny Paulino. Raul Chavez is nothing more than a AAAA player. I mean, the guy hit .221 last year in AAA and .255 the year before in AA. And now, all of the sudden, because he has a decent arm and "handles pitchers extraordinarily well" he is better than Ronny Paulino? Has Paulino played poorly enough to get sent to the minor leagues?
Most fans (and apparently management too) say yes. I disagree. If you look at Paulino's stats from the last week he was with the club, here's what he hit: .357 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI in 14 AB's. So what happened? Paulino promptly went down and has hit .700 in 10 AB's with 2 doubles and 2 HR's since his demotion. I'm not suggesting he would have done this in the majors, but it sure would be nice to have that bat on the bench right about now. Especially since Chavez really hasn't been all that great defensively, consider in roughly 10 games he's had 2 passed balls, 2 wild pitches and an error. Paulino's stats are these: 30 games, 1 passed ball, 8 wild pitches and an error. The only place Chavez looks better is on wild pitches, which are on the pitcher, and not the catcher! It's also been proven that CERA (catcher's ERA) is not indicative of anything, so there goes that idea. Paulino may be lazy, he may not be playing to his capability, and he may not be a good catcher. But he is a better option than Raul Chavez.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
The Pirates '08 Draft
The Pirates' '08 draft looks impressive on paper. Most obvious to long-time fans is the difference in legitimate prospects. Dave Littlefield & Company always seemed to be 3 (hundred) steps behind all the other teams. In the long run, Littlefield's legacy of overdrafting players may be remembered as much as his inability to develop the players he had.
Considering that the '08 Pirates, who are essentially built on Littlefield's players with different roles (Ryan Doumit catching, Jack Wilson batting 8th, Nate McLouth in center, Zach Duke encouraged to throw strikes, etc.)are now playing pretty well, for our standards at least, maybe Littlefield deserves some credit for kind of having an idea.
A new emphasis has obviously been put on drafting players with skills who know how to play the game, as opposed to the Ed Creech way of thinking, which seemed to be to get guys that look like ball players and attempt to show them how to swing a bat and throw a ball. As refreshing as this is, the Pirates took a lot of risks here. They must now spend twice as much money as the previous regime committed. They must now deal with Satan himself (Scott Boras). They must now convince these new Pirates they are for real. And most of all, they must sign their top two picks, to show the fans that are left, the future is bright.
With all that said, here's a look at the Pirates '08 draft:
1. Pedro Alvarez 3b (Vanderbilt)
-Alvarez should turn out to be the best player in this draft. Most scouts are predicting a .300-35-100 player. Another plus for the Bucs, Alvarez hits left-handed. His swing reminds some of Chipper Jones, which isn't bad since he's chasing .400 right now. It's still up for debate whether Alvarez can stick to 3b, due to a lack of range.
2. Tanner Scheppers rhp (Fresno St.)
-Scheppers represents a high risk pick for the Pirates. A player with huge upside, including a fastball reaching 99mph, Scheppers has been diagnosed with a partially torn labrum. If he can remain healthy, Scheppers should be a beast.
3. Jordy Mercer ss (Oklahoma St.)
-Mercer is a big short stop, who can hit the ball. Some scouts have compared Mercer offensively to Barry Larkin, which of course the Pirates would love.
4. Chase D'Arnaud ss (Pepperdine)
-A common theme in this draft was the Pirates drafting short stops. D'Arnaud doesn't have the upside that Mercer does, but can provide depth at short or third.
5. Justin Wilson lhp (Fresno St.)
-Wilson is a left-handed pitcher with an above-average fastball. He will probably move to the bullpen later in his career if he can't develop another plus pitch.
6. Robert Grossman cf (Cypress, TX H.S.)
-Grossman should prove to be a tough sign, as he's committed to Texas. If the Pirates do sign Grossman, he'll be fun to watch. Not the most talented player in the draft, but very headsy according to scouts.
7. Benjamin Gonzalez ss (Puerto Rico B.A.)
-The third short stop picked in the first seven rounds, Gonzalez is your typical Creech draftee. Supposedly a decent fielder, Gonzalez lacks plate discipline, and a bat in general.
8. Jeremy Farrell 3b (Virginia)
-Farrell is the son of former major leaguer John Farrell. It appears the Pirates overdrafted here, though that is tough to say with any confidence, given the track record of former player's sons. Farrell could play first or third in the pros.
9. Matthew Hague 3b (Oklahoma St.)
-Another sign that the Pirates draft team is concerned about draftees hitting pro, Hague played in the Cape Cod league, and tore it up. He often works the count, and has legit power. Some publications projected him in the outfield, but the Pirates seem intent on leaving him at third. Could be a sleeper.
10. Andrew Gagnon rhp (Liberty Union, CA H.S.)
-Gagnon will be a tough sign, and it seems debatable whether it would even be worth it to sign him. Gagnon is a power pitcher, but needs a lot of work to succeed in the pros. He seems likely to go to San Diego St. (he's committed there unless we blow him away with an offer) and be drafted a few rounds higher in a couple years.
11. Andrew Rubenstein cf (Appalachian St.)
-Rubenstein is a player with gap power and average speed.
12. Calvin Anderson 1b (Southern A & M)
-A big, powerful looking man (6'7" 240lbs) with no speed and a much below average eye at the plate. Let's hope he doesn't sign.
13. Robert Gardner cf (Highland Park, TX H.S.)
-Gardner continues the trend of centerfielder's drafted by the Bucs. Fast little guy committed to Arkansas.
14. Michael Colla rhp (Arizona)
-Colla looks to be a reliever without much hope of making it to the majors.
15. Christopher Aure lhp (North Pole, AK H.S.)
-Aure is supposedly the best prospect from Alaska since 1999. Since nobody's mentioning the name of the guy that was better than him, you have to take that as not meaning he's going to be great. Maybe he'll beat the odds.
16. Wesley Freeman cf (Winter Haven, FL H.S.)
-Freeman looks like a legit prospect, with a major hole in his swing. If he can correct it, he should be a major leaguer someday.
17. Jason Shepherd cf (Navarro)
-Shepherd is a tough guy without a lot of upside. He may return to college and hope for a better draft next year.
18. Jarek Cunningham ss (Mead WA H.S.)
-Cunningham probably won't sign, which isn't such a big deal considering the Pirates drafted three short stops ahead of him. Cunningham could be a guy with 5 tool potential if he can grow into his body.
19. Jason Haniger c (Georgia Tech)
-Haniger would be a fringe prospect if he signs. He appears to have some power, but figures to be below average in most other offensive categories.
20. Quinton Miller rhp (Medford, NJ H.S.)
-Miller is a player the Pirates need to sign if possible. His motion is erratic and he has many mechanical issues, however he would seem to be a project worth the undertaking.
21. Brent Klinger rhp (Glendale Arizona)
-Some publications proclaim Klinger to be pretty solid, however judging from his stats he looks quite average.
22. Patrick Palmeiro 3b (Colleyville, TX H.S.)
-Palmeiro is a Mississippi St. college recrruit and son of steroid user Rafael Palmeiro. Should be a tough sign, but has the pedigree to play in the major leagues.
23. Austin Wright lhp (Hoffman Estates, IL H.S.)
-Wright is a rare player who projects pretty well as both a pitcher and a hitter. It appears the Pirates plan for him is as a pitcher.
24. Brian Litwin 3b (Hickory, NC H.S.)
-Litwin is a big guy with good speed. Once he fills out, he figures to have above-average power and average speed. Looks like a good pick if we can sign him.
25. Brian Leach rhp (Southern Miss)
-Leach is a raw pitcher with a mid 90's fastball. He's ranked fairly high for 25th round, but doesn't seem to be ready for the pro's.
26. Zachary Wilson 3b (Los Angeles, CA H.S.)
-Wilson will most likely go unsigned. He could be a first round pick in 3 or 4 years.
27. Edwin Roman cf (Puerto Rico B.A.)
-Roman has the speed to play for anyone, but looks like Rob Deer with 2 strikes.
28. Kyle Saukko rhp (Sierra)
-Saukko is an athletic pitcher, which really doesn't mean anything. He should be a good pinch runner.
29. Kevin Komstadius 1b (Yakima, WA H.S.)
-Komstadius has the type of name you pray doesn't have to be spelled a lot. He should wreak havoc on equipment managers for years to come, as he has the potential to be a decent power hitter.
30. Daniel Martin rhp (Panola)
-Martin is a classic big guy without much between the ears. He probably won't sign and blow out his arm, costing him bonus money. We'll see.
31. Ryan Hinson lhp (Clemson)
-Hinson is a good value pick at round 31. Projects to have average stuff in the pro's.
32. TJ Forrest rhp (Bossier Parish)
-Forrest fell a long way after having elbow surgery in '06. If he can realize his prior potential, he could be a big-time sleeper.
33. Mark Carver c (North Carolina - Wilmington)
-Carver is a good pick. He is a project behind the plate, but should hold up offensively. Is comparable to David Ross, former Pirate, though not a switch-hitter.
34. Matthew Payne 3b (North Carolina St.)
-Payne should turn out to be a career minor leaguer.
35. Tyler Cox lhp (Illinois St.)
-Cox is a pitcher who does not throw exceptionally hard, but is a good locator.
36. Kyle Morgan cf (San Francisco)
-Morgan doesn't have much upside, and should top out in the low minors.
37. Matthew Curry 1b (Howard)
-Curry is a good gamble in round 37. He could be a bit of a sleeper.
38. Alan Knotts rhp (Louisiana Tech)
-Knotts has below average stuff, but a knack for pitching.
39. AJ Fagan rhp (no schooling)
-Fagan may not sign. He's got good size, so he may grow into a fastball.
40. Beau Didier 3b (Tacoma, WA H.S.)
-Didier comes from a baseball family and is committed to Louisiana St.
41. Chris Simmons c (United States Military Academy)
-Natural hitter with above average receiving skills. Doesn't have anything outstanding, but could reach AA.
42. Cole White rf (United States Military Academy)
-A converted pitcher, White represents the only right fielder taken in the draft.
43. Johnny Gunter rhp (Chattahoochee Valley)
-Gunter was not expected to be taken in the draft, so you can imagine what expectations for him should be.
44. Mike Williams lhp (Mount Olive)
-Skiipping the obvious name comparison, Williams transferred to Mount Olive last season and pitched well enough to be drafted in the 44th round. He does have some potential, however.
45. Allen Ponder rhp (Auburn - Montgomery)
-Ponder is a reliever with some strikeout potential. He will prove interesting if put at the right level.
46. Scott McGough ss (Pittsburgh, PA H.S.)
-Obvious homer pick, McGough will likely be at Oregon St. in the fall instead of in the Pirates minor league system.
47. Jordan Kraft cf (Kennesaw, GA H. S.)
-Craft has stated he'd like to play professionally out of high school, but has also committed to Kennesaw St.
48. Owen Brolsma rhp (Texas Tech)
-Brolsma is a pitcher with some potential, who like others the Pirates drafted, is coming off an injury.
49. Zachary Foster rhp (Pittsburgh - Bradford)
-Foster is a big righty who has also played some first base. He throws hard, but needs a lot of work on secondary pitches.
50. Craig Parry lf (South Dakota St.)
- Parry is a left handed power hitter who can also play some infield.
Considering that the '08 Pirates, who are essentially built on Littlefield's players with different roles (Ryan Doumit catching, Jack Wilson batting 8th, Nate McLouth in center, Zach Duke encouraged to throw strikes, etc.)are now playing pretty well, for our standards at least, maybe Littlefield deserves some credit for kind of having an idea.
A new emphasis has obviously been put on drafting players with skills who know how to play the game, as opposed to the Ed Creech way of thinking, which seemed to be to get guys that look like ball players and attempt to show them how to swing a bat and throw a ball. As refreshing as this is, the Pirates took a lot of risks here. They must now spend twice as much money as the previous regime committed. They must now deal with Satan himself (Scott Boras). They must now convince these new Pirates they are for real. And most of all, they must sign their top two picks, to show the fans that are left, the future is bright.
With all that said, here's a look at the Pirates '08 draft:
1. Pedro Alvarez 3b (Vanderbilt)
-Alvarez should turn out to be the best player in this draft. Most scouts are predicting a .300-35-100 player. Another plus for the Bucs, Alvarez hits left-handed. His swing reminds some of Chipper Jones, which isn't bad since he's chasing .400 right now. It's still up for debate whether Alvarez can stick to 3b, due to a lack of range.
2. Tanner Scheppers rhp (Fresno St.)
-Scheppers represents a high risk pick for the Pirates. A player with huge upside, including a fastball reaching 99mph, Scheppers has been diagnosed with a partially torn labrum. If he can remain healthy, Scheppers should be a beast.
3. Jordy Mercer ss (Oklahoma St.)
-Mercer is a big short stop, who can hit the ball. Some scouts have compared Mercer offensively to Barry Larkin, which of course the Pirates would love.
4. Chase D'Arnaud ss (Pepperdine)
-A common theme in this draft was the Pirates drafting short stops. D'Arnaud doesn't have the upside that Mercer does, but can provide depth at short or third.
5. Justin Wilson lhp (Fresno St.)
-Wilson is a left-handed pitcher with an above-average fastball. He will probably move to the bullpen later in his career if he can't develop another plus pitch.
6. Robert Grossman cf (Cypress, TX H.S.)
-Grossman should prove to be a tough sign, as he's committed to Texas. If the Pirates do sign Grossman, he'll be fun to watch. Not the most talented player in the draft, but very headsy according to scouts.
7. Benjamin Gonzalez ss (Puerto Rico B.A.)
-The third short stop picked in the first seven rounds, Gonzalez is your typical Creech draftee. Supposedly a decent fielder, Gonzalez lacks plate discipline, and a bat in general.
8. Jeremy Farrell 3b (Virginia)
-Farrell is the son of former major leaguer John Farrell. It appears the Pirates overdrafted here, though that is tough to say with any confidence, given the track record of former player's sons. Farrell could play first or third in the pros.
9. Matthew Hague 3b (Oklahoma St.)
-Another sign that the Pirates draft team is concerned about draftees hitting pro, Hague played in the Cape Cod league, and tore it up. He often works the count, and has legit power. Some publications projected him in the outfield, but the Pirates seem intent on leaving him at third. Could be a sleeper.
10. Andrew Gagnon rhp (Liberty Union, CA H.S.)
-Gagnon will be a tough sign, and it seems debatable whether it would even be worth it to sign him. Gagnon is a power pitcher, but needs a lot of work to succeed in the pros. He seems likely to go to San Diego St. (he's committed there unless we blow him away with an offer) and be drafted a few rounds higher in a couple years.
11. Andrew Rubenstein cf (Appalachian St.)
-Rubenstein is a player with gap power and average speed.
12. Calvin Anderson 1b (Southern A & M)
-A big, powerful looking man (6'7" 240lbs) with no speed and a much below average eye at the plate. Let's hope he doesn't sign.
13. Robert Gardner cf (Highland Park, TX H.S.)
-Gardner continues the trend of centerfielder's drafted by the Bucs. Fast little guy committed to Arkansas.
14. Michael Colla rhp (Arizona)
-Colla looks to be a reliever without much hope of making it to the majors.
15. Christopher Aure lhp (North Pole, AK H.S.)
-Aure is supposedly the best prospect from Alaska since 1999. Since nobody's mentioning the name of the guy that was better than him, you have to take that as not meaning he's going to be great. Maybe he'll beat the odds.
16. Wesley Freeman cf (Winter Haven, FL H.S.)
-Freeman looks like a legit prospect, with a major hole in his swing. If he can correct it, he should be a major leaguer someday.
17. Jason Shepherd cf (Navarro)
-Shepherd is a tough guy without a lot of upside. He may return to college and hope for a better draft next year.
18. Jarek Cunningham ss (Mead WA H.S.)
-Cunningham probably won't sign, which isn't such a big deal considering the Pirates drafted three short stops ahead of him. Cunningham could be a guy with 5 tool potential if he can grow into his body.
19. Jason Haniger c (Georgia Tech)
-Haniger would be a fringe prospect if he signs. He appears to have some power, but figures to be below average in most other offensive categories.
20. Quinton Miller rhp (Medford, NJ H.S.)
-Miller is a player the Pirates need to sign if possible. His motion is erratic and he has many mechanical issues, however he would seem to be a project worth the undertaking.
21. Brent Klinger rhp (Glendale Arizona)
-Some publications proclaim Klinger to be pretty solid, however judging from his stats he looks quite average.
22. Patrick Palmeiro 3b (Colleyville, TX H.S.)
-Palmeiro is a Mississippi St. college recrruit and son of steroid user Rafael Palmeiro. Should be a tough sign, but has the pedigree to play in the major leagues.
23. Austin Wright lhp (Hoffman Estates, IL H.S.)
-Wright is a rare player who projects pretty well as both a pitcher and a hitter. It appears the Pirates plan for him is as a pitcher.
24. Brian Litwin 3b (Hickory, NC H.S.)
-Litwin is a big guy with good speed. Once he fills out, he figures to have above-average power and average speed. Looks like a good pick if we can sign him.
25. Brian Leach rhp (Southern Miss)
-Leach is a raw pitcher with a mid 90's fastball. He's ranked fairly high for 25th round, but doesn't seem to be ready for the pro's.
26. Zachary Wilson 3b (Los Angeles, CA H.S.)
-Wilson will most likely go unsigned. He could be a first round pick in 3 or 4 years.
27. Edwin Roman cf (Puerto Rico B.A.)
-Roman has the speed to play for anyone, but looks like Rob Deer with 2 strikes.
28. Kyle Saukko rhp (Sierra)
-Saukko is an athletic pitcher, which really doesn't mean anything. He should be a good pinch runner.
29. Kevin Komstadius 1b (Yakima, WA H.S.)
-Komstadius has the type of name you pray doesn't have to be spelled a lot. He should wreak havoc on equipment managers for years to come, as he has the potential to be a decent power hitter.
30. Daniel Martin rhp (Panola)
-Martin is a classic big guy without much between the ears. He probably won't sign and blow out his arm, costing him bonus money. We'll see.
31. Ryan Hinson lhp (Clemson)
-Hinson is a good value pick at round 31. Projects to have average stuff in the pro's.
32. TJ Forrest rhp (Bossier Parish)
-Forrest fell a long way after having elbow surgery in '06. If he can realize his prior potential, he could be a big-time sleeper.
33. Mark Carver c (North Carolina - Wilmington)
-Carver is a good pick. He is a project behind the plate, but should hold up offensively. Is comparable to David Ross, former Pirate, though not a switch-hitter.
34. Matthew Payne 3b (North Carolina St.)
-Payne should turn out to be a career minor leaguer.
35. Tyler Cox lhp (Illinois St.)
-Cox is a pitcher who does not throw exceptionally hard, but is a good locator.
36. Kyle Morgan cf (San Francisco)
-Morgan doesn't have much upside, and should top out in the low minors.
37. Matthew Curry 1b (Howard)
-Curry is a good gamble in round 37. He could be a bit of a sleeper.
38. Alan Knotts rhp (Louisiana Tech)
-Knotts has below average stuff, but a knack for pitching.
39. AJ Fagan rhp (no schooling)
-Fagan may not sign. He's got good size, so he may grow into a fastball.
40. Beau Didier 3b (Tacoma, WA H.S.)
-Didier comes from a baseball family and is committed to Louisiana St.
41. Chris Simmons c (United States Military Academy)
-Natural hitter with above average receiving skills. Doesn't have anything outstanding, but could reach AA.
42. Cole White rf (United States Military Academy)
-A converted pitcher, White represents the only right fielder taken in the draft.
43. Johnny Gunter rhp (Chattahoochee Valley)
-Gunter was not expected to be taken in the draft, so you can imagine what expectations for him should be.
44. Mike Williams lhp (Mount Olive)
-Skiipping the obvious name comparison, Williams transferred to Mount Olive last season and pitched well enough to be drafted in the 44th round. He does have some potential, however.
45. Allen Ponder rhp (Auburn - Montgomery)
-Ponder is a reliever with some strikeout potential. He will prove interesting if put at the right level.
46. Scott McGough ss (Pittsburgh, PA H.S.)
-Obvious homer pick, McGough will likely be at Oregon St. in the fall instead of in the Pirates minor league system.
47. Jordan Kraft cf (Kennesaw, GA H. S.)
-Craft has stated he'd like to play professionally out of high school, but has also committed to Kennesaw St.
48. Owen Brolsma rhp (Texas Tech)
-Brolsma is a pitcher with some potential, who like others the Pirates drafted, is coming off an injury.
49. Zachary Foster rhp (Pittsburgh - Bradford)
-Foster is a big righty who has also played some first base. He throws hard, but needs a lot of work on secondary pitches.
50. Craig Parry lf (South Dakota St.)
- Parry is a left handed power hitter who can also play some infield.
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