With the year just over a quarter of the way complete, let's take a look at how the 2008 Pirates figure to end the season. As always, take these projections with a grain of salt (especially Nate McLouth's and Adam LaRoche's).
R. Doumit .350-20-60 in 412 AB
A. LaRoche .207-20-80 in 580 AB
F. Sanchez .260-4-84 in 692 AB
J. Bautista .228-16-68 in 508 AB
B. Bixler .171-0-8 in 304 AB
J. Bay .258-27-72 in 604 AB
N. McLouth .306-48-144 in 692 AB
X. Nady .309-20-144 in 648 AB
Nobody but Jose Bautista looks to be spot on in all 4 categories. I'd love for Ryan Doumit's average to stay close to .350, but otherwise I'd say 20 hr's is not out of reach for him. LaRoche's average figures to creep up, but the rest of his stats look ok. Freddy Sanchez has some work to do, though I was pleasantly surprised about his RBI totals. Brian Bixler we know won't be around much longer, much to Paul Meyer's chagrin for some odd reason. Bay looks on track, save maybe for his RBI totals, which should be higher by the end of the year than 72 I hope. McLouth will fall to earth at some point, bringing his numbers down a bit, and I don't expect Xavier Nady's average or RBI totals to be close to where they are now.
Based on career averages, let's project where the Pirates players are more likely to end up. All I'm doing is taking career norms and multiplying by 3/4, then I'll add those numbers to what the player did in their first quarter of the year.
R. Doumit .273 - 18 - 64 in 463 AB
A. LaRoche .253 - 24 - 86 in 550 AB
F. Sanchez .292 - 6 - 74 in 613 AB
J. Wilson .264 - 7 - 42 in 467 AB
J. Bautista .237 - 15 - 61 in 511 AB
J. Bay .275 - 32 - 93 in 585 AB
N. McLouth .276 - 26 - 74 in 500 AB
X. Nady .284 - 19 - 92 in 556 AB
As you can see, these are relatively realistic. The biggest determining factor, besides injuries, will be whether or not the Pirates decide to trade Nady. If they do, his batting average could stay near .300 (traditionally Nady has fared well in platoons), but the RBI total will come way down. A Nady trade could positively affect McLouth because he would figure to drop a few spots in the order to third. A speedy Andrew McCutchen getting on-base in front of Sanchez and McLouth will only help RBI chances. Add in Nate the Great's ability to hit in clutch situations and you may have a recipe for a 100 RBI season from a player that spends half the year in the leadoff spot.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at the pitchers.
Monday, May 19, 2008
My 25 cents.
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